U.S. Manufacturing Output Still Not Back to Pre-Recession Levels

According to adjusted data from the Federal Reserve, U.S. manufacturing output did not surpass its previous peak year of 2007 as originally reported in 2014. 

After a major revision to the data in 2015, U.S. manufacturing production remains below 2007 levels – portraying the depth of the Great Recession in 2008, as well as the stagnant growth in U.S. manufacturing in recent years, reports a recent SCDigest article.

For many years, the baseline for the U.S. manufacturing index was set to 2007 – the peak year for U.S. manufacturing production with the average month for that year scoring 100. The index came under the 100 baseline starting in 2008 – until it reached 100 again in July 2014.

The index continued to stay above the 100 level every month until the Federal Reserve revised the baseline year to 2012 in late 2015. With these revisions, the underlying data itself changed – revealing that the recovery of U.S. manufacturing to 2007 was no longer true.

Every month, the Federal Reserve generates several indices on U.S. industrial output and the complete number includes output from utilities, mining, and manufacturing. As a result, this number can be easily swung by changes in weather, especially with a cold January or hot July creating utility output to rise, states the article.

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